Since 1986, investing legend and Blackstone Vice Chairman Byron Wien begins each January by attempting to predict the 10 big surprises of the coming year.
Wien should be given major props for even trying to do what many investing gurus might not. But in the interest of keeping him honest, it's time to score his 2013 calls.
In the past, Wien has seen about half of his predictions come true. Not bad.
Though this year, he thought that stocks would fall and gold would reach $1,900 an ounce. And that has to count against him pretty big.
NOTE: We awarded partial credit where partial credit was due.
Iran gains nuclear capabilities.
WRONG
Score: 0.2/1.0
Wien was correct in thinking that Iran would be a major theme of the year, so we awarded him partial credit. But he predicted that the country would "announce it has adequate enriched uranium to produce a nuclear-armed missile and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms the claim."
In fact, the theme toward the end of 2013 was more toward disarmament, if anything. In June, Iran elected President Hassan Rouhani, who has taken a more open approach to the West. Weeks ago, Iran and the United States reached their first formal agreement in over 30 years. Iran agreed to freeze some of its nuclear program in exchange for decreased sanctions.
The S&P 500 declines to below 1300.
WRONG
Score: 0.0/1.0
To quote the iconic 1998 Adam Sandler comedy "Billy Madison,""I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul." Harsh, but the S&P is up over 1,800, jumping 23% year-to-date and perenially blowing past its highs.
Financial stocks tumble after a strong 2012.
WRONG
Score: 0.2/1.0
Wien was wrong on stocks again here, writing that financials in particular would "reverse the gains of 2012." Quite the opposite has happened — financial stocks have had a big year with the XLF rallying 29% year-to-date.
We awarded Wien partial credit for his prediction that "regulation increases and lawsuits persist as an industry burden." Two major stories from the year: The appointment of hardline SEC chair Mary Jo White and JP Morgan's legal woes. But neither has had any material impact on bottom lines.
See the rest of the story at Business Insider